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UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan Main Card Preview and Odds
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan (also called UFC Fight Night 292 and UFC Vegas 123) is Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The five-fight main card starts at 7:00 PM CT, after prelims at 4:00 PM CT, and the whole card streams on Paramount+ in the US. Below we go through each main card fight with records, the tale of the tape, recent results and the current consensus moneylines.
Consensus moneylines as of 1:05 PM CT, Thu Oct 29, 2026. Lines move, so check the current price at your own book. Records, heights and reaches are as officially listed before fight week weigh-ins. This page is information, not advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to bet on any fighter.
The main card at a glance (Central Time)
The main card starts at 7:00 PM CT. Fights run in the order below, from the opener to the main event, so later start times depend on how long earlier fights last.
| Order | Fight | Weight class | Records | Consensus moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (opener) | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov | Welterweight | 11-2 vs. 5-0 | Lebosnoyani -305, Hasanov +237 |
| 2 | Yana Santos (#6) vs. Luana Santos (#7) | Women's bantamweight | 17-8 vs. 11-2 | Luana Santos -300, Yana Santos +240 |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden | Flyweight | 13-9 vs. 18-11-1 | Durden -116, Osbourne -105 |
| 4 (co-main) | Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith | Welterweight | 20-8 vs. 13-0 | Smith -277, Brown +222 |
| 5 (main event, 5 rounds) | Renato Moicano (#12) vs. Tom Nolan (#14) | Lightweight | 21-7-1 vs. 11-1 | Moicano -123, Nolan +100 |
Rankings are the UFC's official media-panel rankings. Records are wins-losses-draws, without no contests.
How to read a moneyline: -123 means risking $123 to win $100, and +100 means risking $100 to win $100. The shorter price marks the market favorite. It is not a prediction.
What those prices imply
A moneyline can be turned into an implied probability: for a minus price, divide the price by (the price + 100); for a plus price, divide 100 by (the price + 100). The two sides add up to more than 100% because the price includes the sportsbook's margin. Removing that margin (dividing each side by the total) gives the "no-vig" share.
| Fight | Favorite implied | Underdog implied | Total | No-vig split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moicano -123 / Nolan +100 | 55.2% | 50.0% | 105.2% | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Smith -277 / Brown +222 | 73.5% | 31.1% | 104.5% | 70.3% / 29.7% |
| Durden -116 / Osbourne -105 | 53.7% | 51.2% | 104.9% | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| L. Santos -300 / Y. Santos +240 | 75.0% | 29.4% | 104.4% | 71.8% / 28.2% |
| Lebosnoyani -305 / Hasanov +237 | 75.3% | 29.7% | 105.0% | 71.7% / 28.3% |
These are the market's numbers, not ours, and they will change as the lines move.
Main event: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (lightweight, 5 rounds)
| Renato Moicano | Tom Nolan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-7-1 | 11-1 |
| Ranking | #12 | #14 |
| Age | 37 | 26 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Reach | 72 in | 73 in |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| From | Brazil | Australia |
| Consensus moneyline | -123 | +100 |
- Moicano's recent results: won his last fight, a second-round submission of Chris Duncan in April 2026. Before that he lost a decision to Beneil Dariush (June 2025) and was submitted by Islam Makhachev in a lightweight title fight (January 2025). Earlier wins include Benoît Saint Denis and Jalin Turner in 2024.
- Nolan's recent results: on a five-fight winning streak, most recently a unanimous decision over Farès Ziam in June 2026. Before that he submitted Charlie Campbell in the first round (September 2025) and beat Viacheslav Borshchev by decision (February 2025). His only pro loss came in his UFC debut.
- The matchup facts: Nolan is four inches taller and 11 years younger, with about the same reach. It is an orthodox fighter against a southpaw. This is Nolan's first five-round fight and his first UFC main event. Moicano headlined in April and also fought five rounds for the title in January 2025.
Opinion: I believe the key question in this fight is how Moicano's grappling holds up against Nolan's size and pace over five rounds. That is a judgement call, not a fact or a pick, and the near-even price says the market sees this as a close fight.
Co-main event: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (welterweight)
| Randy Brown | Jacobe Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-8 | 13-0 |
| Age | 36 | 30 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'10" |
| Reach | 78 in | 72 in |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| From | Jamaica | United States |
| Consensus moneyline | +222 | -277 |
- Late change: Smith replaced Carlos Leal, who withdrew with an injury.
- Brown's recent results: has lost his last two, a decision to Kevin Holland (April 2026) and a second-round knee TKO against Gabriel Bonfim (November 2025). Before that he knocked out Nicolas Dalby in April 2025.
- Smith's recent results: unbeaten as a pro and 4-0 in the UFC. Most recently he stopped Bruce Whitehead in the first round at UFC 332 on Oct. 3, 2026, so he is back four weeks later. Before that he stopped Josiah Harrell in the first round (February 2026) and submitted Niko Price (June 2025). Ten of his 13 wins are by knockout.
- The matchup facts: Brown has a five-inch height edge and a six-inch reach edge. Smith is six years younger.
Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden (flyweight)
| Ode' Osbourne | Cody Durden | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-9 (2 no contests) | 18-11-1 |
| Age | 34 | 35 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Reach | 73 in | 67 in |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| From | Jamaica | United States |
| Consensus moneyline | -105 | -116 |
- Osbourne's recent results: his last fight, against Alibi Idiris in February 2026, was first a decision loss and was later changed to a no contest after Idiris tested positive for a banned substance. Before that he lost a decision to Steve Erceg (August 2025) and knocked out Luis Gurule (April 2025).
- Durden's recent results: lost his last fight by second-round submission to Alessandro Costa (July 2026). Before that he beat Jafel Filho by decision (April 2026) and lost a decision to Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (March 2026).
- The matchup facts: this fight was first booked for July but Osbourne withdrew. Both fighters are southpaws and the same height, and Osbourne has a six-inch reach edge. Both sides are priced close to even.
Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (women's bantamweight)
| Yana Santos | Luana Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-8 (1 no contest) | 11-2 |
| Ranking | #6 | #7 |
| Age | 36 | 26 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'6" |
| Reach | 68.5 in | 67 in |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| From | Russia | Brazil |
| Consensus moneyline | +240 | -300 |
- Yana Santos' recent results: has won her last three, all by decision: Macy Chiasson (October 2025), Miesha Tate (May 2025) and Chelsea Chandler (August 2024). She has not fought in about a year.
- Luana Santos' recent results: has won her last three: Karol Rosa by decision (June 2026), Melissa Croden by decision (December 2025) and a second-round keylock submission of Tainara Lisboa (May 2025).
- The matchup facts: same height and stance. Luana Santos is 10 years younger and has a judo background.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (welterweight)
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | Farman Hasanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-2 | 5-0 |
| Age | 27 | 31 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'11" |
| Reach | 72 in | 74 in |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| From | United States | Azerbaijan |
| Consensus moneyline | -305 | +237 |
- Lebosnoyani's recent results: 2-0 in the UFC, after beating Ko by unanimous decision in July 2026 and Phil Rowe by split decision in his February 2026 debut. Five of his 11 wins are by submission.
- Hasanov's recent results: unbeaten, and 1-0 in the UFC after a unanimous decision over Eric Nolan in Baku in June 2026, where he landed 17 takedowns, nine of them in the first round.
- The matchup facts: a submission-heavy record against a fighter whose only UFC fight was built on takedowns. Hasanov has a two-inch reach edge.
What changed on this card
- Randy Brown's opponent: Carlos Leal withdrew with an injury and Jacobe Smith stepped in.
- Reese vs. Gall: a UFC preview from Oct. 26 listed Zachary Reese vs. Mickey Gall on the main card. The official event page now lists it on the prelims, so it is not on this page.
- Other prelim changes: Azamat Bekoev vs. Andre Petroski was removed from the card, and Dakota Hope replaced Gastón Bolaños against Francis Marshall on the prelims.
What this page leaves out
- Prelim fights. This page covers the main card only.
- Weigh-in results. Official weigh-ins are on Friday. Records and measurements above are as listed before weigh-ins. A missed weight or a late withdrawal can still change a fight.
- Method-of-victory, round and prop prices. We only list the moneyline.
- Any prediction or pick. There is none on this page, by design. The one opinion above is labeled.
How to log a UFC bet in our tracker
VigStamp is a free spreadsheet-style bet tracker. It does not place bets and it does not tell you what to bet. If you do bet on one of these fights, here's how we'd record it:
- Write down the exact price you got. The lines above are a Thursday snapshot. Your price is what counts for your results.
- Put it on the right book and sub-account. If you keep more than one balance at the same book, log the bet on the right sub-account. Our guide on tracking your bankroll across multiple sportsbooks shows how we total balances and pending stakes.
- Mark promos honestly. If the stake is a free bet or a profit boost, log it that way so your profit is not overstated. Our free bet and profit boost hedging guide walks through the math if you are thinking about a hedge.
Lines and cards change
Moneylines, fight order and the card itself can change after this page was written, especially around Friday's weigh-ins. This page is a snapshot from Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026, at about 1:05 PM CT. Always confirm the current price and the latest card news before you place anything.
Responsible betting
We want to be straight with you: only bet what you can afford to lose, and set a limit before you start. Betting is not a way to make money and no outcome is guaranteed. You must be 21 or older in most US states. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone close to you, call or text the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-522-4700 also works). It is free, confidential and open 24/7.
FAQ
What time does the UFC Moicano vs. Nolan main card start in Central Time?
The main card starts at 7:00 PM CT (8:00 PM ET) on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026. The prelims start at 4:00 PM CT (5:00 PM ET). The main event starts after the four other main card fights, so its exact start time depends on how long those fights last.
How can I watch UFC Vegas 123 in the US?
The whole card, prelims and main card, streams on Paramount+ in the United States, according to the UFC's official event page.
Who is the betting favorite in Moicano vs. Nolan?
Renato Moicano was a slight favorite at -123, with Tom Nolan at +100, in consensus moneylines as of 1:05 PM CT on Thursday, Oct. 29. That is close to an even fight by the market's numbers, and lines can move before fight night.
Is UFC Vegas 123 the same event as UFC Fight Night 292?
Yes. UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan is also called UFC Fight Night 292 and UFC Vegas 123. It takes place at Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Oct. 31, 2026.
Is Zachary Reese vs. Mickey Gall on the main card?
Not anymore. An Oct. 26 UFC preview listed it on the main card, but the official event page now lists Reese vs. Gall on the prelims. The main card is five fights.